More than twenty years have passed since diplomats from around the world emerged from a conference hall in Kyoto, Japan. What came from this momentous meeting? The meeting produced the first deal ever to limit carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases. All but one of the world’s nations — the United States — have enlisted in the cause, making formidable commitments to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.
Global carbon-dioxide emissions have finally stopped rising. The use of coal in China may have peaked. The price of wind turbines and solar panels is dropping quickly, putting renewable energy within the reach of smaller budgets in countries of the developing world.
Over the past decade, governments and private investors have spent $2 trillion on infrastructure to gather electricity from the wind and the sun, according to estimates by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Capacity from renewable sources has grown by leaps and bounds, outpacing growth from all other sources — including coal, natural gas, and nuclear power — in recent years. Solar and wind capacity installed in 2015 was more than 10 times what the International Energy Agency had forecast a decade before.
Environmental Progress performed an analysis of the evolution of the carbon intensity of energy in 67 countries since 1965. It found no correlation between the additions of solar and wind power and the carbon intensity of energy: Despite additions of renewable capacity, carbon intensity remained flat.
Some countries have defeated the trend. Denmark has dramatically cut its carbon production with vast installations of wind turbines. But Germany’s experience seems to be more typical. The country went all out in deploying wind and solar energy over the past decade, but the decline in carbon intensity was fairly insignificant, from 212 to 203 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour.
Nuclear power faces hurdles beyond popular mistrust. Notably, reactors require a lot of capital up front. Nuclear waste storage continues to be a political “hot potato” that nobody wants to solve.
The price of turbines and solar panels is falling, but the cost of integrating these intermittent sources of energy — on when the wind blows and the sun shines; off when they don’t — is not. This alone will somewhat curtail the climate benefits of renewable power.
There has never been a better time to install a solar energy system!
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